Vietnam’s rice export industry is poised for a rebound in late 2026 as global prices start to rise and demand grows in key markets. By mid-August, Vietnam had shipped around 5.7 million tonnes of rice, with total annual exports expected to hit approximately 7.7 million tonnes. Despite a projected drop in export earnings to about $3.9 billion—roughly 4% less than the previous year due to weak prices earlier in 2026—recent price upticks offer hope. July saw a 5.8% year-on-year increase in rice prices, suggesting that continued growth could bolster Vietnam’s export revenue as the year closes.
Favorable global conditions are also in Vietnam’s favor. The 2026-27 crop year is expected to see a rice supply deficit, potentially pushing global trade to record levels. Concerns about a strong El Niño could drive countries to bolster food reserves, further boosting demand. The Philippines, Vietnam’s largest rice market, plans to import around 5.6 million tonnes this crop year to strengthen its reserves. Additionally, China is ramping up its rice imports, particularly of broken rice for animal feed, creating further opportunities for Vietnamese exporters.
There’s potential for growth in other markets as well. Nigeria may face a significant supply gap, and Kenya has temporarily lifted import duties on white rice, providing an opening for Vietnamese rice under a quota system. Opportunities are also growing in premium markets, with high-quality, low-emission rice fetching prices over $1,000 per tonne in regions like Japan, the European Union, and Australia.
However, several challenges loom on the horizon for Vietnam’s rice industry. The Philippines is contemplating additional safeguard duties on rice imports from Vietnam and other major suppliers, potentially raising tariffs above 35% and impacting shipments to this crucial market. Meanwhile, Indonesia is unlikely to import rice due to robust domestic production and reserves. Vietnamese rice also faces stiff price competition from India and Pakistan in various African markets.
Further complicating matters, Thailand is strengthening its position in China, and Cambodia is boosting its fragrant rice exports, increasing competition for Vietnamese suppliers. Domestically, rising costs for fertilizers, transportation, and energy are squeezing farmers and exporters. The threat of El Niño could bring drought and saltwater intrusion during the late 2026 to early 2027 period, potentially affecting the subsequent winter-spring rice harvest. Yet, with recovering prices and heightened interest in premium rice, Vietnam’s export earnings could see improvement by year’s end, though tariffs, competition, and weather-related risks remain significant concerns.