The Five-Year Setback: Global Oil Peak Delayed, Net-Zero Deadline Threatened

The global energy transition has suffered a five-year setback, with BP now forecasting peak oil demand in 2030 instead of 2025. This delay is a major contributor to the energy giant’s revised outlook, which raises long-term oil and gas demand forecasts and suggests the world is on track to miss the 2050 net-zero target.
BP’s annual outlook presents concerning figures for sustained fossil fuel use. Peak oil demand is now forecast to hit 103 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2030. The long-term forecast for oil consumption in 2050 has also been raised by 8%, climbing to 83 million b/d from the previous 77 million b/d estimate. Natural gas demand projections for 2050 saw a slight increase, now set at 4,806 billion cubic meters a year.
Geopolitical instability is the root cause of this delay. BP’s chief economist attributes the slowdown to the intense focus on national energy security, spurred by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, along with rising trade tariffs. This security drive may spur the creation of low-carbon ‘electrostates,’ but the report equally warns of the counter-risk: an increased preference for domestically produced fossil fuels over imported alternatives.
The report warns that the current slow pace has severe climate implications. BP’s modeling shows that cumulative carbon emissions are set to breach the critical 2∘C carbon budget limit by the early 2040s. The company stresses that maintaining this trajectory increases the economic and social costs required for future climate stabilization. To meet the net-zero goal, BP highlights that oil demand needs to drop sharply and immediately to about 35 million b/d by 2050.
Despite rapid growth in renewables, oil is forecast to remain the largest single source of primary global energy supply, holding a 30% share in 2035. Renewables are set to rise from 10% to 15% of the primary energy supply by 2035 but are not expected to surpass oil’s market share until the late 2040s, illustrating the decades-long inertia in the energy system despite BP’s own strategic pivot towards increasing oil and gas production.